The "V" word

Variance

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article is about the mathematical concept. For other uses, see Variance (disambiguation).

In probability theory and statistics, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out.

 It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean (expected value). 

In particular, the variance is one of the moments of a distribution. In that context, it forms part of a systematic approach to distinguishing

 between probability distributions. While other such approaches have been developed, those based on moments are advantageous in

 terms of mathematical and computational simplicity.

The variance is a parameter describing in part either the actual probability distribution of an observed population

 of numbers, or the theoretical probability distribution of a sample (a not-fully-observed population) of numbers.

 In the latter case a sample of data from such a distribution can be used to construct an estimate of its variance:

 in the simplest cases this estimate can be the sample variance.

(Dec 23)   20th / 339   $5reb  $10k GTD

(Dec 27)   11th / 245   $55 $10k GTD

(Dec 30)   17th / 284   $22  $4k GTD

(Jan 2)      13th / 285   $7reb  $6k GTD

(Jan 6)       20th / 233  $88 WU $20k

(Jan 8)       19th / 573  $11reb  $10k GTD

(Jan 8)       21st / 233  $55 $10k GTD

(Jan 13)     14th / 569  $44  $20k GTD

(Jan 20)     13th / 634  $55  $30k GTD

(Jan 21)    1st / 634  $11reb  $10k GTD

250 Game sample on ipoker I felt like I was running awful with all of these near FT bubbles.

 But the truth of the matter is in that short of a sample it may seem like running poorly to keep coming up

 short when in fact I may have been running good to even make 9 near FT bubbles in less than 250 games... 

sigh at variance and how it works :(

I did however ship the $11reb $1k GTD for almost $2,700 

Here's to running even better over my next 250 games  :)

Have a great week and gl on and off the felt....

Sundays

 Every online grinder knows what Sundays are about. The biggest prize pools as well as the biggest player fields and in the short term sample runs has the most variance. It is that variance that I am speaking about today.

 As a full time player we must constantly and consistently keep our focus on our play and the things we have control over such as volume and strategy approach. This very principle of variance can be so tricky.

 I just started playing on ipoker network where most of the players are significantly less skilled than your average Merge or Revolution player and the fields are much smaller than Stars or FTP on average. So many times during my session I will have to put large portions of 50bbs + in preflop with top hands due to how awful the players are fundamentally. These spots are unavoidable and even though I have them notched most of the time it still creates more variance.  

 For example, you are only 50% to win 4 consecutive 80/20's and that really puts things into perspective on how much variance there truly is in MTT play. So much more so than cash due to the structure and very nature of forced action.

 Being around 100 game sample on ipoker and on a 50 buy in downer really felt like I was running awful but last night I reviewed some HHs and reflected on my mindset at the tables I can definitely see that I have been playing well and the downswing is more normal that I realize that I still have plenty of room to improve and get better.

 One of my favorite Quotes is; "The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing" and in this case the main thing is to fully focus today on my play and let the results take care of themselves....

GL ev1 that plays today  :)

Sunday Sigh

 Speaking of controlling and dealing with emotions with regards to my last post here was the ending to my sunday.. I 3b/c and lose a 75/25  for the C/L in the $15k GTD ipoker with 16 left in my last MTT of the day.. 2nd place would have snap got me out of MU and a win would have put me in the red for a chop  :(

 Obviously having the C/L with 16 left doesn't guarantee us a top finish but I sure like my chances if I can just fade 3 outs for all the dollar equities here  sigh pokerz....

I feel as though I am doing as well as ever in terms of handling the ugly variance of the game we play but I wont lie this hand had me steamed a bit. I snap signed off and went and got some ice cream and watched 4 episodes of "The Office" on Netflix  lol

Ok on to the next one, I am ready to grind heaps this week and put good volume in and play near or at my best game as much as possible.

Have a great week everyone and gl on and off the felt.

Vulcan Logic

  As a poker player it is a constant struggle to deal with our emotions in relation to our short term results. And just as Spock quoted in the movie "Wrath of Khan" to Doctor McCoy to take control of emotions or they will destroy him so to in poker can a players emotions make them into a losing or breakeven player or at the very least cause them to win much less than they are capable.

 Just tonight I decided to play a late night session on Lock/Revolution and right on the direct FT bubble I min raise/4b AA into KK for 45bbs and the C/L with 12 left and the board rolls out JQT69 to bust me... sigh

 This is after losing for a week straight over an average sample when 1st place would have snap got me out of MU. I didnt even flinch, immediately opened 2+2 and started reading some strategy posts in MSMTT forum.

I truly wanted to make this thread not as a rant, but to remind us all that we must learn to completely remove any emotional attachment at all to short term results no matter how bad the beat is.

I can only imagine how great of a poker player Spock would've been had he been a real alien with his intelligence and complete removal of all emotions that Vulcan's had. He would have literally been the best player in the world.  lol

Well, as real humans unfortunately we do have emotions but with a lot of effort and hard work we can learn to control them and not allow them to effect us.

Thanks for reading and gl on & off the tables  :)

I'ts been a while

 Before 4/15/11, a day that unfortunately most online poker players know all too well, I kept this blog up to date submitting entries at least 3 to 5 times per/month. However after the WSOP 2011 I returned to the full time work force and somehow ran out of interesting poker content to discuss in my blog.

 As of last week I was laid off from my job and will now be returning to playing online poker fulltime. As a US player my options do not allow me to play on PokerStars(my favorite site) but options are a bit better than they were right after Black Friday(4/15/11) and I will be playing on a few decent sites that will give me plenty of opportunity to prosper.

 So, just as Yoda spends many hours in his meditation chamber I too will now be spending many hours at my desk playing again :)

 So I will now be blogging again now. Somehow blogging when you are a poker player helps. It helps spending time sharing your thoughts and reflecting on your results and decisions even though not too many people read it other than a few close friends & followers  lol...

My short term goals are to play a minimum of 120 MTTs 6 days/week taking one day/week off. This kind of volume 6 tabling should take anywhere from 45 - 55 hrs/week. I played a small slate of 7 MTTs today blanking everything. Sunday is usually the biggest day of the week for an online grinder but I am starting back up slowly so I get back into the mindset that it takes to succeed at the online grind.

 I am also going to start spending 5 - 10 hrs/week in study and reviewing my play, looking at and discussing hand histories and watching videos. In order to be a good player with consistency a player has to keep up on  all of the changing variables & trends.

That is all for now, CYA at the tables  gl on & off the felt ...

The Samurai is BACK to teh Grind !

Now playing on the Merge Network and True Poker.com under sn SamuraiCardMaster

Here is me mashing buttons again on my 22" widescreen :-)

A wise man(My Father William Linville) once told me to "find something that you love to do and get someone to pay you to do it and you will never work a day in your life" ..

Well after 4/15/11(Black Friday of online Poker) when The Unites States Dept of Justice shut down all three major sites serving US customers I soon found out the old cliche' that "you never know what you have until it is gone" !

Just recently in late December the U.S. DOJ made an official statement that online poker is not illegal. The Department of Justice clarification that the Wire Act of 1961 – a major overarching Federal bill – only applies to sports betting, the DOJ has presumably given the green light for intrastate internet gambling.

Gambling law expert I. Nelson Rose called the DOJ’s opinion, which was made public just two days before Christmas, “a gift to the states, which can now raise hundreds of millions of dollars and create thousands of jobs because there is no other Federal law that would apply to intrastate gambling...

So now a lot of entrepreneurs are getting back into the business of poker and I recently found a sponsor/full-time Backer on 2+2.com

So I will be back to grinding, will not quit my day job for now as I think it would be wise to be patient but it feels great to get back to doing what I love again :-)

I will be posting more frequent blogs again and i wish everyone gl on & off the felt....

Sad day when they are leaving rather than coming...

As you enter NYC Harbor you will see the Statue of Liberty and on it you will read the words: "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe freedom"

A clear symbol of what freedoms and liberties were meant over 200 years ago when our founders signed the Declaration of Independence.




Poker was invented in 1864 in a 52-card deck in the version of 7-card stud on the riverboats of the Mississippi river.

The first fully functional digital computer ENIAC was completed in 1946 at the University of Pennsylvania.

The first internet was up and running in America ARPANET at Stanford Research Institute in 1969.

The first "real money" online poker site was running on Jan 1, 1998 Planet Poker founded by Mike Caro.

The UIGEA/ Unlawful internet gaming Act was passed on Sept 30, 2006 making it illegal for banks in the US to process gaming online transactions thus making it virtually impossible for Americans to play online even though poker itself is and was not illegal.

"Black Friday" April 15, 2011 the United States Dept of Justice seizes the Domains and shuts down and indicts most of the major online poker sites that served US customers in the years after the UIGEA was passed.

This great nation that I love invented this game I love. We marketed it and popularized it and then big corporate America, who is behind the passing of the UIGEA and the DOJ indictments, has now made it where we (America, the "Land of the free" ???) are one of only a few nations that now fully has made it where its citizens cannot play online poker !

Yes that is right, countries like China, Iran, former Soviet Union all allow their people to fully play online with no Govt involvement at all !

Because of this I now know many people whom I met through the poker world have immigrated to other countries such as Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica etc etc where they can be free to play the game they love because they cannot do so in the United States of America !!

Once again I quote: "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe freedom"..

What have we done to ourselves ? And what can we do to fix it ? Some groups like the PPA are fighting for Federal Legislation that regulates online poker and will set up licensing fees and tax it. This may seem like a good idea and it certainly might be better than conditions pre "Black Friday" as online poker operated with minimum accountability. But if we allow big business such as Harrahs Corporation and people like Senator Harry Reid of Nevada to get their way we will have a much worse scenario that would give us few sites to play on all owned by a few people which would be really bad for the players.

Even if you do not play poker, PLEASE understand this fight is not just about poker, it is about what it is to be an American ! People are now leaving the US and going to other countries where they are finding the kind of freedoms we once delivered ! That alone should scare any red blooded American.